O efeito de políticas monetárias antagônicas sobre a atividade econômica: uma análise baseada nos casos brasileiro e japonês
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https://doi.org/10.11606/1980-5330/ea184189Palavras-chave:
política monetária, impactos econômicos, modelo ARDLResumo
Desde a década de 1990, os juros têm se mantido elevados no Brasil, a fim de inibir a inflação, e próximos de zero (ou negativos) no Japão, visando evitar a crônica deflação. Diante desse antagonismo, buscou-se analisar os impactos, sobre a atividade econômica, das políticas monetárias desses países. Para tanto, usaram-se os modelos ARDL (Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag), com dados trimestrais de 1996-2019. Os resultados indicam certa interdependência entre as políticas fiscais e monetárias e sugerem que políticas com potencial inflacionário poderiam gerar impactos reduzidos/negativos no Brasil (avesso à inflação) e ampliados/positivos no Japão (complacente com o aumento de preços).
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