Os impactos do mercado de crack nos pequenos municípios do Rio Grande do Sul: uma viagem sem volta para a criminalidade violenta

Autores

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.11606/1413-8050/ea193251

Palavras-chave:

crime, crack, diferença nas diferenças, estudo de evento, Rio Grande do Sul

Resumo

O artigo avalia a relação causal entre criminalidade violenta e mercado de drogas ilícitas pela identificação escalonada de mercados de crack em municípios do Rio Grande do Sul entre 2011 e 2017. Os resultados indicam que um mercado de crack está associado a aumentos de 53,82% nos homicídios nos períodos seguintes, de 40,92% nos roubos a pedestres no período em que o mercado é identificado e de 94,08% nos roubos a residência no grupo de municípios tratados a partir de 2016. A conclusão é de que o mercado de crack gerou incrementos relevantes e duradouros na criminalidade violenta.

Downloads

Os dados de download ainda não estão disponíveis.

Referências

ABADIE, Alberto. Semiparametric difference-in-difference estimators. Review of Economic Studies, v. 72, n. 1, p. 1–19, jan. 2005.

ABDALLA, Renata Rigacci et al. Prevalence of cocaine use in Brazil: data from the II Brazilian national alcohol and drugs survey (BNADS). Addictive Behaviors, v. 39, n. 1, p. 297–301, jan. 2014.

ATHEY, Susan; IMBENS,Guido W. Design-based analysis inDifference-In-Differences settings with staggered adoption. Journal of Econometrics, v. 226, n. 1, p. 62–79, jan. 2022.

ATHEY, Susan; IMBENS, Guido W. Identification and Inference in Nonlinear Difference-in-Differences Models. Econometrica, v. 74, n. 2, p. 431–497, 2006.

AVELAR, Guilherme. Drug markets and violence: evidence from Brazil. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) – PUC-Rio, Rio de Janeiro, 2017.

BAUMER, Eric et al. The Influence of Crack Cocaine on Robbery, Burglary, and Homicide Rates: A Cross-City, Longitudinal Analysis. Research in Crime and Delinquency, v. 35, n. 3, p. 316–340, ago. 1998.

BEATO FILHO, Cláudio Chaves et al. Conglomerados de homicídios e o tráfico de drogas em Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brasil, de 1995 a 1999. Cadernos de Saúde Pública, v. 17, p. 1163–1171, out. 2001.

BERTRAND, Marianne; DUFLO, Esther; MULLAINATHAN, Sendhil. How Much Should We Trust Differences-In-Differences Estimates? Quarterly Journal of Economics, v. 119, n. 1, p. 249–275, fev. 2004.

BLUMSTEIN, A. Youth Violence, Guns, and the Illicit-Drug Industry. Criminal Law and Criminology, v. 86, n. 1, p. 10, jan. 1995.

BLUMSTEIN, A.; RIVARA, F. P.; ROSENFELD, R. The rise and decline of homicide – and why. Annual Review of Public Health, v. 21, p. 505–541, 2000.

BORUSYAK, Kirill; JARAVEL, Xavier. Revisiting Event Study Designs. Rochester, NY, maio 2017.

CALLAWAY, Brantly; SANT’ANNA, Pedro H. C. Difference-in-Differences with multiple time periods. Journal of Econometrics, v. 225, n. 2, p. 200–230, 2020.

CHAISEMARTIN, Clément; D’HAULTFOEUILLE, Xavier. Fuzzy Differences-in-Differences. Review of Economic Studies, v. 85, n. 2, p. 999–1028, abr. 2018.

CHAISEMARTIN, Clément; D’HAULTFOEUILLE, Xavier. Two-Way Fixed Effects Estimators with Heterogeneous Treatment Effects. American Economic Review, v. 110, n. 9, p. 2964–2996, set. 2020.

COOK, Philip J.; LAUB, John H. After the Epidemic: Recent Trends in Youth Violence in the United States. Crime and Justice, v. 29, p. 1–37, jan. 2002.

COOK, Philip J.; LAUB, John H. The Unprecedented Epidemic in Youth Violence. Crime and Justice, v. 24, p. 27–64, 1998.

CORK,Daniel. Examining Space–Time Interaction in City-Level Homicide Data: Crack Markets and the Diffusion of Guns Among Youth. Quantitative Criminology, v. 15, n. 4, p. 379–406, dez. 1999.

CORMAN, Hope; MOCAN, H. Naci. A Time-Series Analysis of Crime, Deterrence, and Drug Abuse in New York City. American Economic Review, v. 90, n. 3, p. 584–604, jun. 2000.

DIRK, Renato; MOURA, Lílian. As motivações nos casos de letalidade violenta da Região Metropolitana do Rio de Janeiro. Cadernos de Segurança Pública, v. 8, 2017.

EVANS, William N.; GARTHWAITE, Craig; MOORE, Timothy J. Guns and Violence: The Enduring Impact of Crack Cocaine Markets on Young Black Males. [S. l.], jul. 2018. Disponível em: https://www.nber.org/papers/w24819.Acesso em: 14 ago. 2021.

FRYER, Roland G. et al. Measuring Crack Cocaine and Its Impact. Economic Inquiry, v. 51, n. 3, p. 1651–1681, 2013.

GOLDSTEIN, Paul J. The Drugs/Violence Nexus: A Tripartite Conceptual Framework. Journal of Drug Issues, v. 15, n. 4, p. 493–506, out. 1985.

GOODMAN-BACON, Andrew. Difference-in-differences with variation in treatment timing. Journal of Econometrics, v. 225, n. 2, p. 254–277, dez. 2021.

GROGGER, Jeff; WILLIS, Michael. The Emergence of Crack Cocaine and the Rise in Urban Crime Rates. Review of Economics and Statistics, v. 82, n. 4, p. 519–529, 2000.

HECKMAN, James et al. Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data. Econometrica, v. 66, n. 5, p. 1017–1098, 1998.

HECKMAN, James; ICHIMURA, Hidehiko; TODD, Petra E. Matching as an Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence fromEvaluating a Job Training Programme. Review of Economic Studies, v. 64, n. 4, p. 605–654, 1997.

INCIARDI, J. A. The crack-violence connection within a population of hard-core adolescent offenders. NIDA Research Monograph, v. 103, p. 92–111, 1990.

JOHNSON, Bruce D.; GOLUB, Andrew; FAGAN, Jeffrey. Careers in Crack, Drug Use, Drug Distribution, and Nondrug Criminality. Crime & Delinquency, v. 41, n. 3, p. 275–295, jul. 1995.

KILSZTAJN, Samuel et al. Vítimas fatais da violência e mercado de drogas na Região Metropolitana de São Paulo. Revista Brasileira de Estudos de População, v. 20, n. 2, p. 259–279, dez. 2003.

LEVITT, Steven D. Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors that Explain the Decline and Six that Do Not. Economic Perspectives, v. 18, n. 1, p. 163–190, mar. 2004.

LEVITT, Steven D.; VENKATESH, Sudhir Alladi. An Economic Analysis of a Drug-Selling Gang’s Finances*. Quarterly Journal of Economics, v. 115, n. 3, p. 755–789, ago. 2000.

MIRAGLIA, Paula. Drugs and Drug Trafficking in Brazil: Trends and Policies. Washington, DC: Center for 21st Century Security and Intelligence, 2015.

OUSEY, Graham C.; LEE, Matthew R. Examining the Conditional Nature of the Illicit Drug Market-Homicide Relationship: A Partial Test of the Theory of Contingent Causation. Criminology, v. 40, p. 73, 2002.

OUSEY, Graham C.; LEE, Matthew R. Investigating the Connections Between Race, Illicit Drug Markets, and Lethal Violence, 1984-1997. Research in Crime and Delinquency, v. 41, n. 4, p. 352–383, nov. 2004.

PORTELLA, Daniel Deivson Alves. Homicídios dolosos, tráfico de drogas e indicadores sociais em Salvador, Bahia, Brasil. Disponível em: http://www.cienciaesaudecoletiva.com.br/artigos/homicidios-dolosos-trafico-de-drogas-e-indicadores-sociais-em-salvador-bahia-brasil/16153?id=16153. Acesso em: 14 ago. 2021.

RILEY, K. Jack. Homicide and Drugs: A Tale of Six Cities. Homicide Studies, v. 2, n. 2, p. 176–205, maio 1998.

ROSENFELD, Richard; DECKER, Scott H. Are arrest statistics a valid measure of illicit drug use? The relationship between criminal justice and public health indicators of cocaine, heroin, and marijuana use. Justice Quarterly, v. 16, n. 3, p. 685–699, set. 1999.

SANT’ANNA, Pedro H. C.; ZHAO, Jun. Doubly robust difference-in-differences estimators. Journal of Econometrics, v. 219, n. 1, p. 101–122, nov. 2020.

SANTOS, Marcelo Justus dos; KASSOUF, Ana Lucia. Uma Investigação Econômica da Influência do Mercado de Drogas Ilícitas Sobre a Criminalidade Brasileira. Economia, v. 8, n. 2, 2007.

SAPORI, Luis Flavio; SENA, Lucia Lamounier; SILVA, Braulio Figueiredo Alves da. Mercado do crack e violência urbana na cidade de Belo Horizonte. Dilemas - Revista de Estudos de Conflito e Controle Social, v. 5, n. 1, p. 37–66, jan. 2012.

SILVA, Risomário Willams da. Crimes letais e o mercado ilegal de drogas brasileiro: uma análise para o período 2006-2015. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) – Universidade Federal de Pernambuco, Recife, 2020.

SUN, Liyang; ABRAHAM, Sarah. Estimating dynamic treatment effects in event studies with heterogeneous treatment effects. Journal of Econometrics, v. 225, n. 2, p. 175–199, dez. 2021.

VARANO, Sean P. et al. Exploring the Drugs-Homicide Connection. Contemporary Criminal Justice, v. 20, n. 4, p. 369–392, nov. 2004.

VARANO, Sean P.; KUHNS, Joseph B. Drug-Related Homicide. In: BROOKMAN, Fiona; MAGUIRE, Edward R.; MAGUIRE, Mike (org.). The Handbook of Homicide. Chichester: Wiley, 2017. p. 89–104.

ZIMRING, Franklin E. The Great American Crime Decline. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008.

Downloads

Publicado

2023-06-01

Edição

Seção

Artigos

Como Citar

Oliveira, C. A. de, & Costa, I. C. V. (2023). Os impactos do mercado de crack nos pequenos municípios do Rio Grande do Sul: uma viagem sem volta para a criminalidade violenta. Economia Aplicada, 27(2), 201-224. https://doi.org/10.11606/1413-8050/ea193251