Testing two types of monetary rules for Brazil
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/1413-8050/ea217561Palavras-chave:
regra, discrição, credibilidade, flexibilidade, simulaçãoResumo
O objetivo desse artigo é verificar se trajetórias não inflacionárias para o PIB nominal no período 1974.I-1992.III teriam sido geradas se uma regra monetária tivesse sido adotada. Dois tipos de regras são consideradas. A primeira é uma regra ativa proposta por McCallum (1987,1988) e a segunda é uma regra não-ativa proposta por Meltzer (1987). Os resultados da simulação indicam que nenhuma das regras mostra um bom desempenho durante o período de análise.
Downloads
Referências
ALESINA, A. "Macroeconomics and Politics" In Stanley Fischer (ed.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual, Cambridge : MIT Press, 1988.
ALESINA, A. "Politics and Business Cycles in Industrial Democracies" Economic Policy 89, 8:57-98,1989.
BARRO, R. J. "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States", American Economic Review, 67:101-115, 1977
BARRO, R. J. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States" Journal of Political Economy, 86:549-580, 1978.
BARRO, R. J. "Developments in the Theory of Rules versus Discretion". In: BARRO, R. J. Macroeconomic Policy, Harvard University Press, 1990.
FRIEDMAN, B. M. "Targets, Instruments and Indicators of Monetary VoWcy", Journal of Monetary Economics, 1:443-473, 1975.
FRIEDMAN, B. M. "Targets and Instruments of Monetary Policy" In B. M. Friedman and F. H. Hahn (eds.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, vol. II, Elsevier, 1990.
GRANGER, C. W. J., & Newbold, P. "Spurious Regressions in Econometrics", Journal of Econometrics, 2:111-120,1974.
KYDLAND, F. E., & PRESCOTT, E. "Rules Rather than Discretion: The Time Inconsistency of Optimal Plans" Journal of Political Economy, 85:473-492, 1977
LUCAS, R. E. "Expectations and the Neutrality of Money", Journal of Economic Theory 4*103 124, 1972.
LUCAS, R. E. "Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs", Economic Review, 63:326-334,1973.
MCCALLUM, B. T. "Monetarist Rules in the Light of Recent Experience" American Economic Review, 74:588-591, 1984.
MCCALLUM, B. T. "The Case for Rules in the Conduct of Monetary Policy: A Concrete Example", Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond Economic Review 73, September/October, 10-18, 1987.
MCCALLUM, B. T. "Robustness Property of a Rule for Monetary Policy" Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 29:173-203, 1988.
MCCALLUM, B. T. Monetary Economics Theory and Policy, Macmillan, 1989.
MELTZER, A. H. "Limits of Short-Run Stabilization Policies", Economic Inquiry, 25:1-14, 1987.
SARGENT, T. J. & Wallace, N. "Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic" Federal Reserve Bank
of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Fall, 1-17, 1981.
SARGENT, T. J. "Reaganomics and Credibility". In T. Sargent, Rational Expectations and Inflation, Second Edition, Harper Collins, 1993.
SIMS, C. A. "Macroeconomics and Reality" Econometrica, 48 : 1-48, 1980.
TAYLOR, J. B. "What Would Nominal GNP Targetting Do to the Business Cycle?", Carnegie- Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, 22 : 61-84, 1985.
Downloads
Publicado
Edição
Seção
Licença
Copyright (c) 1997 Economia Aplicada
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
