Está a economia americana superaquecida?

Resumo

This paper presents a diagnosis ofthe macro conditions ofthe US Economy. It analyses two possible scenarios. In the first, technological developments created preconditions for a rapid and sustainable economic growth with price stability. In the second, nothing essential has changed.. The paper analyze a series representative of production, measured by per capita real income and a series representative of total expenditures. We estimate an excess of actual output over its full employment level of almost 6% and an excess of expenditures over its equilibrium level of almost 5%, both when measured by the trade and the current account deficits. Two variables appear to explain this behavior of economic agents. One variable indicative of the level of excess wealth, here approximated by the overvaluation ofthe Dow Jones Index and one to capture the degree of competitiveness of the US economy. We concluded that by the end of 1999, the value of the Dow Jones Index was more than 60% above its equilibrium level. The overvaluation of the stock exchange and of the US dollar would explain the excess of production and of expenditures over their equilibrium level.