Unexpected Earnings, Stock Returns, and Risk in the Brazilian Capital Market

Abstract

This article analyzes the role of risk in the earnings response coefficient (ERC) in the Brazilian capital market. Since 'risk' may be measured in various ways and it can vary systematically according to the conditions under analysis, empirical studies have reported conflicting evidence with regard to the role of risk in the ERC. The empirical study is based on annual data from a sample of 212 companies listed on the Brazilian Securities, Commodities, and Futures Exchange (BM&FBOVESPA), within the period from 1995 to 2013. The analysis takes into account longitudinal data and various measurements of unexpected earnings, risk, and several control variables. The results suggest that the earnings-return relationship is negatively affected by total risk and nonlinear effects of unexpected earnings and it is positively affected by earnings persistence. The analysis failed to indicate any significant association between the ERC and systematic risk and it failed to provide evidence that the full adoption of the International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS), in 2010, affected the way how the market reacts to surprises in the disclosure of accounting earnings. In order to analyze the earnings-return relationship, classifying companies by the total risk ranking showed better results in terms of distinguishing high and low-risk companies. This article contributes to the accounting literature in emerging markets by reporting that controlling the earnings-return relationship through total risk, nonlinear effects, and earnings persistence may optimize financial analysis and the companies' assessment process.