O Brasil no mundo: conjecturas e cenários

Abstract

THIS article presents part of the results of a broad research about Brazil and international scenarios. Assuming the same prospective view of the research project, this article indicates a few current driving forces that will contribute to define international order in the future, in a 20 years perspective. The roles of the USA, Europe and China are highlighted in this analysis. Four scenarios are used as parameters for the analysis of the Brazilian case: conflictive deconcentration, benign multipolarity; consolidated unipolarity and cosmopolitan liberal order. We consider Brazil as an Intermediate State out of the critical areas of international conflict. We also consider that Brazil has certain margin for maneuver and reasonable amount of capacity to define its international strategies.