Determinantes do comércio bilateral Argentina-Brasil: uma avaliação dos impactos estáticos do processo de integração no Mercosul

Abstract

The assessment of trade creation and trade diversion effects of regional economic integration schemes rests on the assumption that trade flows among member states are largely determined by changes in intraregional tariffs. Based on econometric exercises, this paper presents empirical evidence on the importance of barriers to intra-regional trade relative to barriers to imports from third countries as a significant determinant of trade flows between Brazil and Argentina. It then goes on to analyze trade creation and trade diversion effects arising from the implementation of Mercosul. The results suggest that trade diversion predominated in Mercosul, particularly during 1991-94.