Evolução recente da produção e importação de automóveis no Brasil

Abstract

This article studies the evolution of the production and import of automobiles in Brazil in the nineties. Intervention analysis in time series and cointegration, for the methodology of Johansen, are used to verify it happened a substitution of the domestic production for the imports. The conclusion is that it didn't happen, and that the elevation of the imports was temporary. One argue that this temporary elevation of the imports in the two years after 1994 had as cause the own dynamics ofthe durable goods and not only the government's policy with regard to the sector.