Reforma tributária, crescimento e distribuição de renda no Brasil: lições de um modelo de equilíbrio geral computável

Abstract

This work analysis the effects of an alternative tributary reforms in the economic growth and in the income distribution applying a model of computable general equilibrium. Simulations were performed comparing the historical trajectory of the Brazilian economy in the period between 1996 through 1998 against the effect of alternative fiscal policies. It was evidenced that tributary reform options leading to an increase of indirect taxes produce negative results in terms of growth and distribution. The best fiscal option is a relative decrease of indirect taxes, specially on basic products, balanced with an increase in the direct taxes to the richest families.