Usando ciclos reais para construir cenários macroeconômicos

Abstract

We construct a dynamic general equilibrium model, in line with the Real Business Cycles literature, to design macroeconomic scenarios for the medium-term. At high frequencies, the model generates simulated data generated consistent with the cyclical volatilities of the National Income as well as with the countercyclical nature of the Brazilian Trade Balance. For the low frequencies, following the "Bank-Fund" and "gap" models tradition, we use the external financing gap as a constraint to growth. In particular, we find that for a 10 years time horizon, a Current Acount deficit of 4.5% of GDP is consistent with a GDP growth rate of 3.7%.