Análises da dinâmica orçamentária dos municípios brasileiros: uma aplicação da metodologia VAR com dados empilhados

Abstract

The paper estimates a panel-VAR using data on total expenditures, tax receipts and overall grants received for 5.544 Brazilian municipalities observed from 2002 through 2010. A sequence of hypotheses was investigated by the means of the overidentification test statistic. Among our main findings, we underscore there exists evidence of change in the fiscal behavior of the municipalities, but which in average support the tax and spend hypothesis, as well as the flypaper effect of grants over expenditures. We also find there is a lot more dynamics in expenditures compared to own revenues. Those results shed light on some important aspects of the municipal budget dynamics.