Choques cambiais, política monetária e equilíbrio externo da economia brasileira em um ambiente de hysteresis

Abstract

The concept of hysteresis suggests that a shock on exchange rate change the foreign equilibrium of the economy. In that context, the experience of the fluctuations of the Brazilian case from the Real Plan is examined, obtaining three central conclusions: 1) A high interest rate monetary policy diminishes the magnitude of the impact of an exchange depreciation about the exports, what imply a shift of the external equilibrium; 2) An elevation of the interest rate increase the lag of the J curve for the Brazilian economy; 3) The change of the exchange rate regime from fixed to flexible in 1999, altered the parameters of the stochastic process that governs the exchange fluctuations, affecting the entrance decision parameters in the external market of the domestic firms, being necessary a bigger exchange depreciation to the domestic firm decide to export.