A emenda da reeleição e a Lei de Responsabilidade Fiscal: impactos sobre ciclos políticos e performance fiscal dos Estados (1986-2002)

Abstract

This paper studies the fiscal behavior of Brazilian Federal States in the period 1986-2002, focusing, in particular, on the effects of two recent institutional changes, the "Reelection Amendment" and the "Fiscal Responsibility Law", on political budget cycles and on fiscal performance. The results provide evidence that the Reelection Amendment caused intensification in political cycles, stimulating opportunistic manipulations during the electoral period; and the Fiscal Responsibility Law constituted an effective instrument to control indebtedness and to reduce functionalism spending in States. The evidence also shows that the magnitude of the political cycles has been decreasing in time, a fact that could be attributed to the electorates learning and experience in successive elections, which contribute to increase the level of political control, so reducing the intensity of the cycles.