Regime monetário de meta de inflação em um ambiente de heterogeneidade de estratégias de formação de expectativas de inflação
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53574321jsglKeywords:
Inflation target, Inflation expectation, evolutionary dynamicsAbstract
We study the dynamics of an inflation targeting regime in a macroeconomic context
represented by a three-equation model (IS curve, Phillips curve and interest rate rule)
and with heterogeneous strategies to form expectations of inflation. Economic agents
choose between using the official inflation target as predictor of future inflation (credulous
strategy) or paying a random cost (unknown a priori) to perfectly predict it (skeptical
strategy). The distribution of these strategies in the population follows an evolutionary
dynamics with and without endogenous mutation. We find that full credibility is not a necessary condition for reaching the inflation target, given that heterogeneity of
inflation expectations, when there is mutation, is an evolutionary equilibrium but the
inflation target is nonetheless reached.
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