Income transfer and the dynamics of economic growth: a simulation model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.1590/1980-53574334stesKeywords:
income distribution, economics growth, simulationAbstract
The purpose of this paper was to elaborate a theoretical model of simulation in order
to verify the effects of income transference policies over the economic growth dynamic,
following a structuralist approach. The main basis of the simulation is the export-led
growth model, of the Kaldorian type. Five scenarios were drawn considering income
distribution policies, with and without direct income transfer policy by the government.
The scenario that better adjusts the income redistribution with increased rate in the
long-term growth is part of the group “without transference” policy. In the short-term
the major growth rates were obtained in a group scenario “with income transference”.
The main conclusion is that there is a trade-off between the redistribution policies in
such a way that those which are more beneficial to the macroeconomic environment
in the short-term cannot be the best ones in the long-term, and vice versa.
Downloads
References
AGHION, P.; ALESINA, A.; TREBBI, F. Democracy, technology, and growth. Working Paper NBER, 13180. Cambridge: NBER. 2007.
AGHION, P.; CAROLI, E.; GARCIA-PEÑALOSA, C. Inequality and economic growth: the perspective of new growth theories. Journal of Economic Literature, v. 37, p. 1615-1661, dec., 1999.
BARBOSA-FILHO, N. H. A simple model of demand-led growth and income distribution. Revista Economia, v. 5, n. 3, p 117-154. 2004.
BIELSCHOWSKY, R. Cinquenta anos de pensamento da CEPAL. Rio de Janeiro: Record, 2004, v. 1 e 2.
BIELSCHOWSKY, R. Sesenta aõs de la CEPAL. Buenos Aires: Siglo Veintiuno, 2010.
BOCCANFUSO, D.; DECALUWÉ, B.; SAVARD, L. Poverty, income distribution and CGE microsimulation modeling: does the functional form of distribution matter? Journal of Economic Inequality, v. 6, 2007, p. 149-184.
BONELLI, R. e RAMOS, L. Distribuição de renda no Brasil: avaliação das tendências de longo prazo e mudanças na desigualdade desde os anos 70. Revista de Economia Política, v. 13, n. 2, 1993, p. 77-97.
BOURGUIGNON, F.; BRANSON, W. H.; MELO, J. Adjustment and Income Distribution: A Counterfactual Analysis. NBER Working Paper Series, n. 2943, 1989.
CAMPANO, F.; SALVATORE, D. Economic development and income distribution. Journal of Policy Modeling, v. 29, 2007, p. 553-556.
DEININGER, K.; SQUIRE, L. Economic Growth and income inequality: reexamining the links. Finance & Development, 1997.
DUTT, A. K. Growth, distribution, and uneven development. New York. Cambridge University Press. 1990.
FAJNZYLBER, F. Industrializacion en America Latina: de la “caja negra” al “casillero vacio”. Santiago de Chile: Naciones Unidas, 1989.
FURTADO, C. A economia latino-americana. São Paulo: Nacional, 1976.
FURTADO, C. Subdesenvolvimento e estagnação na América Latina. Rio de Janeiro: Civilização
Brasileira, 1968.
GREENWOOD, J.; JOVANOVIC, B. Financial Development, Growth, and the Distribution of Income. The Journal of Political Economy, v. 98, n. 5, 1990, p. 1076-1107.
GREMAUD, A. P; SAES, F. M. S.; TONETO JR., R. Formação econômica do Brasil. São Paulo:
Atlas, 1997.
JEONG, H.; TOWSEND, R. M. Growth and inequality: model evaluation based on an estimation-
-calibration strategy. Macroeconomic Dynamics, 12 (Supplement 2), 2008, p. 231–284.
KALDOR, N. Alternative Theories of Distribution. The Review of Economic Studies, v. 23, n.2, 1956, p. 83-100.
KUZNETS, S. Economic Growth and Income Inequality. The American Economic Review, v.45, n.1, p. 1-28, Mar. 1955.
LANDESMANN, M. A.; STEHRER, R. Income distribution, technical change and the dynamics of
international economic integration. Metroeconomica, v. 58, n.1. 2007.
LANGONI, C. G. Distribuição de renda e desenvolvimento econômico do Brasil. Rio de Janeiro:
Expressão e Cultura, 1973.
LIMA, G. T. Endogenous technological innovation, capital accumulation and distribution dynamics. Metroeconomica, v. 55, n. 4. 2004.
LIMA, G. T. Progresso tecnológico endógeno, crescimento econômico e distribuição de renda. In: LIMA, G. T; SICSÚ, J.; PAULA, L. F. (Orgs). Macroeconomia moderna: Keynes e a economia
contemporânea. Rio de Janeiro: Campus, 1999.
LOCATELLI, R. L. Efeitos macroeconômicos de uma redistribuição de renda: um estudo para o Brasil. Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico, v.15, n.1, p.139-170, 1985.
MOREIRA, G. R.C.; ALMEIDA, L.; GUILHOTO, J. M.; AZZONI, C.R. Productive structure and
income distribution: the Brazilian case. The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, v. 48,
, p. 320-332.
MORLEY, S. The income distribution problem in Latin América and the Caribbean. Santiago: CEPAL, 2001. 169 p.
PASINETTI, L. Rate of profit and Income Distribution in Relation to the Rate of Economic Growth, Review of Economic Studies, v. 29, n. 81, oct. 1962, p. 267-279.
PREBISCH, R. O desenvolvimento econômico da América Latina e alguns de seus problemas principais. In: BIELSCHOWSKY (Ed.). Cinquenta anos de pensamento da CEPAL. Record: Rio de
Janeiro, 2000.
RIBEIRO, G. M. Efeitos da distribuição sobre o nível de renda da economia: uma análise da composição setorial produtiva do Brasil. 2012. 66 p. Dissertação (Mestrado em Economia) – Departamento de Economia, Universidade Federal de Viçosa, Viçosa. 2012.
ROBERTS, B. M.; ZOLKIEWSKI, Z. Modelling income distribution in countries in transition: a
computable general equilibrium analysis for Poland. Economic Modelling, v. 13, 1996, p. 67-90.
ROBINSON, J. The accumulation of capital. London: Macmillan, 1956.
TAVARES, M. C. Da substituição de importações ao capitalismo financeiro. Rio de Janeiro: Zahar, 1982.
TAYLOR, L. Macro models for developing countries. New York: MacGraw-Hill. 1979.
WANG, Z.; ZHAI, F. Tariff reduction, tax replacement, and implications for income distribution in China. Journal of Comparative Economics, v. 26, 1998, p. 358-387.
WORLD BANK. World Development Report: Equit and Development. Washington: World Bank, 2006.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2013 Silvia Harumi Toyoshima, Evaldo Henrique da Silva
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
By submitting an article, the author authorizes its publication and attests that it has not been submitted to any other journal. The original article is considered final. Articles selected for publication are proofread for grammatical and orthographic errors. The journal does not pay rights for published articles. The Institute of Economic Research from the School of Economics, Business and Accounting of the University of São Paulo (Instituto de Pesquisas Econômicas da Faculdade de Economia, Administração e Contabilidade da Universidade de São Paulo) owns the journal's copyright.
