From FHC to Bolsonaro, 27 years of evaluations by Brazilian public opinion: What explains the president’s popularity?
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.14201/reb202310212147Keywords:
Public opinion, President evaluation, Brazil, time seriesAbstract
The article proposes to analyze a time series of evaluations by four Brazilian presidents, between 1995 and 2022. The question is: how did the evaluation variations of Brazilian presidents come from public opinion? The hypothesis is that external and internal factors explain differently the evaluation variations. External explanatory variables are economic indicators such as unemployment and inflation rates. The main objective is to identify the types of changes in presidents’ approval curves and test the VP-function for Brazilian presidents. The results show economic variables have inconsistent effects and that the passage of time is the main explanation for the decline in popularity of presidents - the closer to the end, the more difficult it is to maintain high levels of approval.
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