Doença de coronavírus 2019: a importância do distanciamento social
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.11606/issn.2176-7262.v53i3p223-233Palavras-chave:
Pandemia, Distanciamento social, CoronavirusResumo
A atual pandemia da doença de coronavírus 2019 constitui uma severa ameaça para as pessoas e a economia a nível global. A adoção de medidas para reduzir a velocidade de expansão da pandemia é essencial. Neste trabalho se busca examinar o impacto potencial da implementação de medidas de distanciamento social. Em particular, se examina o impacto, na dinâmica de infectados e óbitos, de uma redução na taxa de reprodução (R0).
Se recorre a utilização de uma extensão do modelo SIR padrão o qual considera explicitamente os infectados que ainda não podem transmitir a doença (expostos) e os que morreram (falecidos) e uma taxa de reprodução decrescente ao longo do tempo. Esse comportamento da taxa de reprodução refletiria a implementação de medições de distância com base em diferentes especificações.
Os resultados sugerem que as medidas de distanciamento contribuem para reduzir significativamente a quantidade máxima de infectados ativos e falecidos diariamente. Isto é, eles conseguem achatar as curvas de contágios e mortes.
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Copyright (c) 2020 Fernando Antonio Ignacio González
Este trabalho está licenciado sob uma licença Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
